littleboxes
Given to Fly
Turns out the world is complicated. Is the world, whatever that is, capable of being understood?
We read a few other blogs here at littleboxes. Zap has been writing a lot about causality and models of the world. He seems likes a rather curious guy and what is confusing him right now is how people (like us?) come to understand the world. Specifically how do we come to understand what causes what? Do we view the world as completely random? That would, for example, describe a view that "It doesn't matter whether or not I work hard, any raise I get will be completely random." Or, another example, "I don't need to show up for work because I may just get fired randomly anyway." Clearly, the whole everything is random model doesn't hold up too well. What works a little better is assigning some causation to things. For example, "I believe that if I work hard my chances at a raise are better than they would otherwise be." Of course, it's possible that at your workplace, if it's anything like ours, only awards raises to people who know people. Our co-worker Alex is a lazy fucker who often shows up to work completely high and wearing a gorilla costume, yet he is our highest paid employee. Turns out that Alex is the boss's son in-law.
Anyway. Y over at Yin-Yang was writing recently about Iraq and commenting on the idea that we should pull out of Iraq now.
We started to try to think of what our opinion on the whole Iraq mess is. Specifically, do we have answer to the question, should we pull all our troops out of Iraq now?
Well, unfortunately, we don't have answer. Of course, only two answers really exist to that question. All other answers are variations on the whole "yes/no" theme. But, we really don't know the, in Zap's terms, "model" for what is happening in Iraq. Would pulling out do any good? We have no idea. Sure it would likely save some american lives in the short run, but what about the long run?
We're sure that arguments could be made on both sides, but does anyone really know the answer? How can anyone, or any group, really be sure of what is causing what over there or anywhere? Seems like everyone is just making "educated" guesses. Of course, no one admits this. Would it be just too scary to the public if our leaders came out and said, "well, we're really not sure we are doing the right thing, but we have to do something, and given what we think we know, we're proceeding like this..." ?.
Now, if we were in charge and just had to make a decision, it would simply be our best guess. But, we have a hard time even speculating on what that "best guess" would be. It's just so god damn complicated. We would be paralyzed with fear.
Maybe it would be better to act with (apparent) complete certainty, like Dear Leader.
We read a few other blogs here at littleboxes. Zap has been writing a lot about causality and models of the world. He seems likes a rather curious guy and what is confusing him right now is how people (like us?) come to understand the world. Specifically how do we come to understand what causes what? Do we view the world as completely random? That would, for example, describe a view that "It doesn't matter whether or not I work hard, any raise I get will be completely random." Or, another example, "I don't need to show up for work because I may just get fired randomly anyway." Clearly, the whole everything is random model doesn't hold up too well. What works a little better is assigning some causation to things. For example, "I believe that if I work hard my chances at a raise are better than they would otherwise be." Of course, it's possible that at your workplace, if it's anything like ours, only awards raises to people who know people. Our co-worker Alex is a lazy fucker who often shows up to work completely high and wearing a gorilla costume, yet he is our highest paid employee. Turns out that Alex is the boss's son in-law.
Anyway. Y over at Yin-Yang was writing recently about Iraq and commenting on the idea that we should pull out of Iraq now.
We started to try to think of what our opinion on the whole Iraq mess is. Specifically, do we have answer to the question, should we pull all our troops out of Iraq now?
Well, unfortunately, we don't have answer. Of course, only two answers really exist to that question. All other answers are variations on the whole "yes/no" theme. But, we really don't know the, in Zap's terms, "model" for what is happening in Iraq. Would pulling out do any good? We have no idea. Sure it would likely save some american lives in the short run, but what about the long run?
We're sure that arguments could be made on both sides, but does anyone really know the answer? How can anyone, or any group, really be sure of what is causing what over there or anywhere? Seems like everyone is just making "educated" guesses. Of course, no one admits this. Would it be just too scary to the public if our leaders came out and said, "well, we're really not sure we are doing the right thing, but we have to do something, and given what we think we know, we're proceeding like this..." ?.
Now, if we were in charge and just had to make a decision, it would simply be our best guess. But, we have a hard time even speculating on what that "best guess" would be. It's just so god damn complicated. We would be paralyzed with fear.
Maybe it would be better to act with (apparent) complete certainty, like Dear Leader.
posted by littleboxes at 6:42 PM
3 Comments:
i knew that members of the littleboxes staff were part of the axis of evil.
I believe there is exagerration on both sides of the "certainty" issue. Democrats liken Bush's resolve to naivety and ignorance. Republicans call him a "strong leader". Whatever. My personal belief is that there is no success without goals. You aim high, and even if you don't reach your goal, chances are you will accomplish something worthwhile. The journey's the thing, some say. I believe that it is a noble goal to promote democracy in Iraq. Will the fiished product look like what we envisioned in every respect? Certainly not, but time will tell. As for pulling out, when the time is right, we will all know.
What's fun is that this can go on and on. For example, are we really certain of the goal?
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